India Assessment Executive Summary October 2011

• India’s economic and political ambitions extend far beyond its borders and are felt in Afghanistan, in  the Middle East and Africa and throughout the Indian Ocean and in the South China Sea.
• Relations with Pakistan and China are complicated and intermittently tense, but for the time being manageable. 
• A strategic partnership has been established with the United States, to boost economic ties and to contain the geopolitical rise of China.
• India in the coming decade will purchase defence equipment for about 100 billion dollars from Israel, Russia and the U.S., the biggest series of arms deals ever envisaged.
• Terrorist attacks might (re-)occur in India.
• Corruption triggers significant social protests and demonstrations.
• The Congress Party-lead ruling coalition faces new tests at the polls on provincial level in early 2012.
• On the 25th of October, the Reserve Bank of India raised interest rates and cut its growth forecast amid high consumer prices and slowing global growth. The Bank raised its key rate to 8.5% from 8.25%, the 13th increase since March last year. Food prices remain extremely high. The cost of fruit has gone up by a third in the past year. High inflation sparks protests across the country.
• Poor infrastructure, corruption, health issues and lack of policy coherency are the most  obvious impediments for India’s development.