Pakistan Assessment December 2010

• The over-arching factor in any assessment concerning Pakistan, is the ongoing emergency caused by immense flooding of the Indus river. The present emergency has security implications and has further damaged the credibility of a civilian regime that has seemed less than attentive and efficient in its crisis response. The army has provided relief to the destitute - temporarily preventing it from fighting radical islamists, but improving its standing amongst the population and, again, manifesting its dominance over its civilian counterparts in Pakistan’s body politic.
• Although steps have been taken and efforts continue to be made in order to inspire mutual confidence between Pakistan and India, distrust remains a significant obstacle for lasting improvements in relations between the two countries. Pakistan is working consistently to avoid being encircled by India, a hostile regime in Afghanistan, and Iran, with whose strategy in Afghanistan Pakistan is frequently at odds. The threat from terrorist activities and from sectarian violence are considered HIGH all over Pakistan, including in the main cities of Punjab, such as Islamabad, Rawalpindi and Lahore and in Karachi in the Province of Sindh.
• In spite of serious strains and security challenges, and acknowledging that radical Islamists have indeed attacked strategic official targets, the Pakistani state is not about to crumble or implode. The Pakistani nuclear arsenal is not about to fall into the hands of radical islamists.
• When in Pakistan, adequate routines regarding safety and security must be in place at all times, and security related infrastructure must be installed, in accordance with specified local circumstances.
• Once the floods have receded, established patterns of conflict will probably reemerge. Thus, at the moment there are few reasons to change this assessment. However, developments will be closely watched and any significant change in tendencies, trends or paradigms immediately recognized and reported.